MyDD :: Congratulations are in order.

Congratulations are in order.

by Lord Hadrian, Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:33:59 PM EST

Senator Clinton carries the great bluegrass state of Kentucky and delivers a wonderful speech.

Congratulations to her.

But, as was planned awhile back, May 20th is the day.

1627.

One, incontrovertible number. One unshakable number. One impossible to ignore, impossible to get around, impossible to disavow number.

1627 Pledged Delegates.

Whereas Senator Clinton has to bend over backwards and include states that have not yet been sanctioned and which will not be seated at full on May 31st; whereas Senator Clinton has to ignore four caucus states that did not release information to claim the largely unimportant Popular Vote metric that still goes for Senator Obama on almost every *respected* news site.

This. This metric. This one is *not* hard to decipher.

As I've espoused in another thread - the demographics were not going to lie.

Tonight, Senator Clinton won Kentucky as expected, as expected ages ago and Senator Obama will win Oregon, as expected, as expected ages ago. Senator Obama's team has only been wrong twice, once that favored him, once that favored Senator Clinton.

But tonight a threshold of importance that cannot be ignored has been crossed.

Whereas almost everyone does not acknowledge the popular vote argument, people are acknowledging this very important threshold that has just been crossed.

May 31st is May 31st.

May 20th is May 20th.

And on May 20th, Senator Obama has crossed 1627 Pledged Delegates.

The Super Delegates have shown where they're heading, none have defected from Senator Clinton and so we'll see if Senator Obama crosses the 2026 threshold before May 31st.

And then it'll be very difficult to say Senator Obama is not the nominee.

So congratulations to Senator Clinton tonight - and understand this, as I've said a million times. This is not a landslide. This is not a MAJOR win. It's a win by razor thin margins. And those razor thin margins just happen to belong to Senator Obama.

Congratulations to Senator Obama; the David has defeated Goliath once more.

Tags: Primary 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 38 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Congratulations are in order. (2.00 / 3)

Kudos to Senator Clinton. Big win.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:34:29 PM EST

Congrats Senator Clinton. (2.00 / 4)

Congrats on the more important and larger victory, Senator Obama.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:34:36 PM EST

He hasn't won yet (2.00 / 0)

I concede that he may win. But he has not done so yet. Let us finish the remaining contests and see what the voters have to say. And then let the SD's make a reasoned decision as to which candidate has the best shot at beating John McCain in November. I think that HRC has the best shot, and that if the SD's look honestly as the realities on the ground they will come to the same conclusion--that said, they may still choose to throw the nomination to BHO, which I believe would be a grave mistake.

Should they do so, I'll still work for the nominee in the fall. But please, don't say he has won when he hasn't. Let's let the game play out and see where we are at that point.

Unity Ticket: The best damn way to kick John McCain's Ass in November!

by aurelius on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:51:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (2.00 / 4)

Congrats to Clinton for KY
Congrats to Obama for OR

And congrats to Obama for the majority of pledged delegates

This is truly a nomination fight to remember.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:37:02 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

I agree, congratulations to Senator Clinton for winning KY. I was listening to Bill speak, and he agreed Senator Clinton needed to win KY. I suppose he's got the experience to know better than anyone in the Democratic party, he's had the experience with KY, and when was the last time a Democratic presidential candidate had an experience with that?

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:44:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Congrats to Hillary on one of her.. (none / 0)

... biggest victories. She put up one hell of a tough fight.

by dystopianfuturetoday on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:56:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

* waits patiently *

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:59:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you waiting patiently (2.00 / 0)

for a TR?

I'm not going to TR you--just disagree with you. He's not the nominee, and may very well not end up being the nominee. I will not TR you for holding a different opinion.

Unity Ticket: The best damn way to kick John McCain's Ass in November!

by aurelius on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:54:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (2.00 / 1)

1.) Are the Oregon results in?

2.) The number needed to clinch will change in 11 days...the Florida and Michigan delegations will be seated and in all likelihood the number needed will grow by between 100 and 200 delegates

by LDFan on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:40:46 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

Actually, that lead tonight at 2026 requires only another three delegates. If the target pulls up to 2210, he still hits it tonight if he performs in Oregon as planned, and if not, then PR will do it for sure.

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Congratulations to Saddam Hussein. (1.40 / 5)

For his massive, lop-sided victory in the Iraqi elections of 1999. In a stunning upset, he won, garnering 99% of the vote, 1% going to uncommitted. Some people tried to mock his victory, saying it was somehow "undemocratic." Nonsense! How can you ignore the voters of Iraq! They spoke in huge numbers, millions turning out to vote for Saddam. Are you going to ignore their votes just because there was nobody else to vote for? Then you're not the Democrat! You're the one who doesn't want to count votes!

Yes, let's offer congratulations to Saddam Hussein. He taught us what democracy is really about: Counting votes in fake uncontested elections and calling it democratic.

by Dumbo on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:41:49 PM EST

Re: Congratulations to Saddam Hussein. (none / 0)

I assume you would like to cancel Obama's steller perfomance in his race for the Illinois State Senate back in '96!

After all...he knocked all his opponents off the ballot, ran unopposed, and won his senate seat.

by LDFan on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:57:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It might be a better analogy (none / 0)

if the election was declared beforehand to be unofficial. Winning an unofficial ("Michigan doesn't count!" -- Hillary) election against no opposition is not a good bragging point.

by Dumbo on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're being appallingly trollish (none / 0)

by comparing HRC to Saddam Hussein. I would HR you, but I'd rather let your stupidity stand up for everyone to view. You're no Democrat.

Unity Ticket: The best damn way to kick John McCain's Ass in November!

by aurelius on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:58:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (2.00 / 1)

Congrats to Hillary Clinton for her victory in Kentucky.

Congratulations to Barack Obama for his win in Oregon and his

reaching the majority of pledged delegates.

Oops! Almost forgot!

Congrats to Hillary for polling ahead of Barack in a SUSA N.C. poll!

Mooseburgers? Careful Sarah. Moose bite back!

by spacemanspiff on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:43:35 PM EST

unshakable? I think not. (none / 0)

Even as the rules stand, the number is 2025. And the rules will change on May 31, maybe not as far as Senator Clinton wants them, but 2025 is not unshakable.

That's it, baby; let's go win this election!

by Beltway Dem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:47:17 PM EST

Didn't say anything about him winning the (2.00 / 2)

nomination this evening. I said he'd wrap up 2026 by the time May 31st rolled around.

And I said May 20th is May 20th, and tonight he crossed 1627 Pledged Delegates - a majority and something that cannot be changed, even if Florida and Michigan are seated in full.

The Pledged Delegate count is over. Senator Obama has won it.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:51:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (2.00 / 2)

im confused, now 1627 comes out of no where, i thought the number was 2026 needed to clinch the nomination?

[if thats not moving the goal posts i dont know what is?]

seriously

by alyssa chaos on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:47:33 PM EST

Did I say anything about him being the nominee? (none / 0)

I said he just won a plurality of Pledged Delegates.

And that he will likely cross 2026 before May 31st.

I said it was an unshakable metric. Even if May 31st went exactly as Senator Clinton wanted to, Senator Clinton cannot win the Pledged Delegates.

Tonight, Senator Obama closes this avenue down for all intents and purposes, although he technically did it back in February when he put the Pledged Delegate lead at 150.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did I say anything about (none / 0)

okay so...

he hasnt won? i mean he hasn't reached 2026? I understand your mentality, but would like to note that:

plurality does not = win.

----+++++----

by alyssa chaos on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:54:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

and.... (2.00 / 1)

not that i am saying you're spinning, but this is a created metric by which your candidate created this 'inevitability' theme. plurality of pledged delegates does not equal a winner, which is why, amongst other reasons HRC is still in the race. 2025 or 2210 or whatever the hell the number is or will be is the important one.... and which EITHER candidate needs supers to get to. ;)

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:54:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No, it doesn't. (none / 0)

And to win, all she would have to do is to get a good lot of Obama supers back, win 105% of the remaining pledged delegates (which means they would have to find mistakes where delegates were handed out) and then the rest of the uncommitted supers to go her way.

Obama 2008!

by lollydee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:57:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and.... (none / 0)

ahhh yes...

so candidate metrics are only acceptable when Barack suggests them....oh.....

I get it now.

thanks canadian gal for the clarification.

by alyssa chaos on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:00:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

It's a majority of delegates. It means that Senator Clinton would have to get about 105% left of the pledged delegates remaining in state contests in order to win without a superdelegate coup.

She's pretty much fund raising to pay down debt at this point. It might sound deceitful, but it's common in politics and she needs to keep going to collect on some of the money she loaned her campaign.

Obama 2008!

by lollydee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:52:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

the menatlity that plurality equals a win is absurd. it does not factor in super delegates?? i thought the democratic nomination process included superdelegates. wait so she cant win without the supers??

i thought no one couldn't? not even super barack...

by alyssa chaos on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Never said she couldn't win. (none / 0)

I guess theoretically a bunch of Obama supers could jump ship, she could win all the remaining contests by a wider margin than she ever has and the rest of the supers could commit to her and then she'd win.

I guess it's possible.

Obama 2008!

by lollydee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:00:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your comprehension skills are failing you (2.00 / 1)

And I hate to be mean, but again, I did not say Senator Obama won the nomination.

I said he won the Pledged Delegate totals. Which is a metric by which he will hammer Superdelegates with.

And I said it's likely he'll cross 2026 before May 31st.

Do you want to try again?

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your comprehension skills are failing you (none / 0)

It's still fresh. I imagine it'll sink tomorrow at some point. Don't sweat it.

Obama 2008!

by lollydee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:04:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your comprehension skills are failing you (2.00 / 0)

im being sarcastic lord hadrian, how ever with all this inevitability up in my face it sure seems like you are declaring victory.

my my my. aren't you a meanie.

please let us try again. if you spoon feed me [obama talking points] slowly enough, i might not spit it out on you.

-----+++++-----

by alyssa chaos on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:10:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not trying to be mean. (none / 0)

Pledged delegates are important. They're 70% of the overall total, if not more.

So sorry for being condescending.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:12:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Congratulations are in order. (2.00 / 1)

Congratulations Senator Clinton.

And May 20th is always May 20th, just like May 21st will be May 21st.

Nothing of real earth shattering substance.

But I give you an "A" for audacity.

Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?

by emsprater on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:53:36 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

Thanks for a long fight, it's time to come together.

by skywaker9 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:03:03 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

Clinton's base is constituted primarily in the places she needs to and expects to win in November. That is her strength; they have been planning for the general election for years and if they get there they will be hard to beat. I think this is the biggest advantage she has over Obama. Her natural constituency gives her a win where as his makes him stronger in a lot of states he may not be able to carry

by Wiseprince on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:08:22 PM EST

Obama to speak momentarily. (none / 0)

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:11:31 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

Congrats to Hillary for winning more votes nationwide! Too bad she will end up like Al Gore while we get another unqualified figure head in the White House

by rossinatl on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:26:28 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

Kudos to Obama & Clinton for their respective victories tonight.

McCainuire, The Wrath Of Not Enough Naps.

by catilinus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:55:50 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (2.00 / 1)

If McCain runs against Clinton and is not on the ballot in Michigan, chances are that Clinton would win the popular vote even if losing the electoral college... and thus she should be president.

by xdem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:00:08 PM EST

Re: Congratulations are in order. (none / 0)

Congratulations to Senator Hillary Clinton for a terrific win in Kentucky, and a terrific speech!

Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie

by toyomama on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:21:52 PM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.